It has been close to 3 years since my last post, and as I review all of my posts from back then, I am reminded of how entirely we were held in the grip of the COVID-19 pandemic. It was difficult at that time to envisage what the post-pandemic world would be like, or even when we would finally be free of it. As I write this now, the pandemic feels like a distant memory. While the pandemic is still not over, on May 5, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared an end to the global public health emergency for COVID-19, with the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) subsequently declaring the same for the United States on May 11. Deaths due to Covid-19 have been trending down since the start of this year, from a high of 3,848 per week on Jan 7, to 624 on June 3. While masks are still a presence, life seems to be slowly getting back to normal here in the Bay Area, and most of us are happy and relieved to move on, as am I.

In the meantime, inflation has become the staple of conversation and our daily lives. It has claimed a few high profile victims - Silicon Valley Bank in March, and First Republic Bank in May - both based in the Bay Area. Back in November last year, I wrote a post about inflation inflation-post. In that I had referenced how in the September 2022 meeting, the Fed forecast inflation (PCE) to be in the range of 2.6-3.5% in 2023 and 2.1-2.6% in 2024. In their most recent meeting on June 14, 2023, the projections for 2024 are now 2.2-2.8% with a median of 2.5% relative to 2.3% back in September last year. The Fed is expecting higher inflation than in the past, though it still expects it to fall over time, to a median value of 2.1% in 2025 and closer to its long run expectation of 2%.

I can’t wait for a time where the world is free of any pressing global crisis or concerns. It seems like 2025 might be the first such year, though this might well be wishful thinking.